How the simulation works
The data behind the opponents, the odds behind every fight and the rules for how a result becomes a live, round-by-round story.
The goal: a believable career, not a coin flip
UNBEATEN is a game, but it is built on real data and a transparent model, so that the result of every fight feels earned. This page explains where the data comes from and what happens between the moment you press FIGHT and the moment the scorecards are read.
Where the data comes from
- Rankings and champions: the current divisional top 15 and each champion, taken from public ranking data and refreshed regularly, so the opponents you face match the real order of the division.
- Records and physical details: win-loss-draw records, ages, reach and similar details compiled from public fighter databases.
- Recent fight cards: the real unranked fighters who appear on upcoming and recent events, used for the early fights of a climb.
- Style tags: roughly 170 fighters are classified by style (wrestler, grappler, striker, finisher, cardio machine, durable) from their real fighting history, so that opponents tend to fight the way their real counterparts do.
The attribute ratings on the draft cards are our own judgement calls and are not official statistics.
Step 1: every opponent gets a rating
Each opponent is given a rating on the same scale as your fighter. The higher the rank, the higher the rating, and champions sit at the top. A fighter's real career win percentage then nudges that rating up or down by a few points, so a veteran with a great record is rated above a similarly ranked fighter with a mixed one.
Step 2: your effective rating
Your starting point is your overall rating from the eight attributes. On top of that the game adds a few adjustments:
- Momentum: every win adds a little to your effective rating, up to a cap of six points, because a fighter on a streak is dangerous.
- Difficulty: a small boost on Normal and a bigger one on Easy; none on Hard.
- Title fights: the pressure of five rounds and the big stage costs most fighters a point, while personalities such as Conor McGregor and Kamaru Usman are built for it and gain instead.
- Personality and nationality: small attribute changes and some situational bonuses, described on the card.
Step 3: win probability
The gap between your effective rating and the opponent's rating is turned into a win probability using the same kind of logistic curve used by Elo ratings in chess and other sports. In plain terms, every 18 rating points of difference multiplies the odds by ten. A fighter rated 18 points higher than an opponent is roughly a 10-to-1 favourite, about 91 percent. Equal ratings are a coin flip. The probability is always kept between 4 and 96 percent, so nobody is ever a certainty. The number you see before the fight is this probability.
Step 4: deciding how the fight ends
Once the winner is decided, the method is chosen. The chance of a knockout depends mainly on your power and striking, and the chance of a submission depends mainly on grappling. Some personalities shift those numbers, and the style of your opponent matters too: a known wrestler will take you down more often and a known striker is more likely to knock you out. If the fight is not finished it goes to the judges, where the chance of a split decision is highest when the matchup was close and shrinks as the favourite gets stronger. A small share of fights, roughly one percent each, end in a draw or a no contest.
The round of a finish is drawn from realistic distributions, with first-round finishes common, and title fights can go as deep as the fifth round.
Step 5: the live fight
The live fight is written after the outcome is known, as the most believable story of how that result happened. Your striking, grappling, power, leg kicks and chin decide how often each kind of exchange appears and how much damage it does. A fight that you win by knockout in the second round will show you building an advantage and a finish in the second round; a split decision will show a close, evenly damaged fight. Damage bars, round numbers and the stats sheet are all generated from the same script, so the stats and the story always agree.
The living division
The rest of the division does not freeze while you fight. In the background, other contenders fight each other. Rankings reshuffle, a veteran may retire, an unranked prospect can break in, and champions can lose their belts to someone other than you. A short news feed on your career screen reports the changes, and the opponent you were expecting may not be the one you end up facing.
What the simulation is not
It is not a prediction of real fights, and it is not a betting tool. The ratings, probabilities and results are the output of a game model. They are designed to feel fair and to reward good drafting, but real fights are decided by a thousand things that no model captures.